The domestic box office for Top Gun: Maverick is set to surpass Avengers: Infinity War, but can it surpass Avengers: Endgame? The Tom Cruise-led Top Gun: Maverick is a box-office sensation after years of delays caused by the pandemic.
Featuring Miles Teller, Jennifer Connelly, Val Kilmer, Jon Hamm, Charles Parnell, and Glen Powell, Top Gun: Maverick continues the story of Captain Pete “Maverick” Mitchell as he faces the end of his Navy career as he returns to the Top Gun school to train pilots for a deadly mission.
At the domestic box office, Top Gun: Maverick is poised to overtake Avengers: Infinity War, but it will have to beat some serious heavy hitters if it continues, including Avengers: Endgame. Although Top Gun: Maverick never fell below sixth place in its entire run thus far and even overtook Thor: Love & Thunder in its latest weekend, it has demonstrated a resiliency rarely seen.
The film is more popular with audiences than any others as the box office begins to slump in late summer. Listed below are predictions for how Top Gun: Maverick will finish in theaters after beating Avengers: Infinity War’s box office.
Hollywood did not expect Top Gun: Maverick to perform at the level it has at the box office, even though it was expected to do somewhat well. It has been 35 years since the original film was released, so a follow-up would need to cover a lot of ground before a box office success is guaranteed.
It is clear from the critical reviews, repeat viewings, and word-of-mouth that Top Gun: Maverick is a great movie, first and foremost. Additionally, Cruise and Paramount held out for theatrical release and released the movie when pandemic fears had died down – a gamble that paid off. A summer-movie palate cleanser, Top Gun: Maverick matched the hype of Avengers: Infinity War (and is now expected to surpass it).
Top Gun: Maverick was expected to perform moderately at the box office, but no Hollywood insider expected it to perform at this level. Since the original film was released 35 years ago, a follow-up had a lot of ground to cover before it was a box office success. Top Gun: Maverick’s success is the result of its greatness, as evidenced by favorable critic reviews, repeat viewings, and word-of-mouth from audiences.
Cruise and Paramount made a great gamble by holding the film for theatrical release and releasing it when pandemic fears had eased off. Summer moviegoers craved something with spectacle but without superheroes or giant monsters, making Top Gun: Maverick a palate cleanser that matched Avengers: Infinity War (and will now surpass it).
Although Top Gun: Maverick has had an unexpectedly successful domestic run, it will not surpass Avengers: Endgame or The Force Awakens. In comparison, Top Gun: Maverick currently sits at $858 million while the latter films are at $936 million, which is approximately $200-300 million higher.
It would have to keep that momentum well into next year, while still staying in theaters, which is highly unlikely to happen. At present, Top Gun: Maverick is bringing in roughly $3-5 million per week. As far as its theatrical run goes, it’s likely to pass Infinity War and take Black Panther’s #5 spot. That’s still an incredible feat.
Streaming and 4K/Blu-ray/DVD releases for Top Gun: Maverick has not been announced, so it is unclear when it will leave theaters. It is possible that Top Gun: Maverick might enjoy a 120-day window in theaters, which would place its release date on other platforms somewhere between late August and mid-September.
Paramount’s standard for streaming/home video is 90 days, which puts Top Gun: Maverick at the end of August. If numbers remain high in theaters, it may be a little later. Streaming and home video sales will no doubt be record-breaking when it is released.
It’s likely that Top Gun: Maverick will finish at around $700 million domestically, plus or minus $10 million. It is an amazing achievement for a 35-years-late sequel to an ’80s classic starring Tom Cruise that ranks #5 all-time domestic earners.
Top Gun: Maverick is a proven box-office phenomenon, but it may still have some tricks up its sleeve to draw audiences back in (such as the recent fan appreciation weekend), taking it even further than anticipated yet again, as Top Gun: Maverick has always done.
Robert Poirrer is a contributing author who covers Hollywood latest movie releases and web series for the MovieThop website. He has a decade of experience in writing movies based articles for numerous renowned media outlets. He is excellent at creating unique content based on emerging trends in a variety of categories especially entertainment, movies and lifestyle. When not writing articles you could find Robert enjoying mountain biking trips with his friends. He graduated in English Literature from North Carolina State University.